August 15th 2009: Have not posted for a while because it would have been more of the same. Something to the effect, "sales still stink and it’s a buyer's market". Well, things are still spongy but they have improved significantly! At this point if you are a first time buyer you should consider dusting off the cobwebs and start looking; especially since we have the $ 8,000 tax credit. The lower price ranges are bottoming but I still expect price compression in houses over $ 400,000. In layman's terms the pain in that group is not over yet.
March. 6th, 2009: Sales have picked up and inventory has declined.
Lower rates and tax incentives appear to be helping the market.
Jan. 15th, 2009: A new year is upon us. Low rates are certainly attracting attention in the refinance market but this has not translated into a huge surge in resale. Economic worries are holding the market down at this point. Should be an interesting year. Our new forecast for 2009 can be viewed
here.
Dec. 17th,2008: Stats above for November posted. Rates are super low and actvity appears to be improving.
Nov.30th: More of same. Rates are benefited by the flight to safety amid the turmoil. We will soon not see rates this low again in our lifetimes in my opinion.
Oct.28th: Market is still in a buyer's market. Inventory selection is good and intererst rates are excellent.
Sept.16th: Still a buyer's market. Rates have dropped as money has flowed into treasuries. As money flees the stock market it flows into the bond market and rates are reduced. This is a temporary situation as funding the U.S. debt will continue to be problematic.
August 19th: Market continues to be a buyer's market. I just posted a video about the national real estate market on my blog, and it is well worth the time to listen.This video applies to the national market but has many salient comments that apply to our market as well. Click
here to listen.
July 24th: Just posted mid-year update.
Click here to read our most recent thoughts.
July 13th: Nice visual as to where I think we are in this cycle.
May 13: Inventory remains high and sales continue to be soft.
March 29: With the growth in inventory numbers we now expect house prices to finish down, year over year between 1-5%. Seller's must be aggresive in their pricing while buyer's are experiencing a better selection then they have had for years. We could have flat prices for 3 to 5 years so both buyer's and seller's should proceed.
March 20: rates continue to moderate. Huge amount of risk averse monies are flowing into treasuries. The impact is lower yields hence lower mortgage rates. This will not last but there is a window of opportunity if you need to refinance and or if you are purchasing.
It is currently a buyer's market in the Puget Sound Region.Pierce county is fairing worse than King.
Feb.27,2008: The Fed continues to drop short term rates. The Fed can lower short term interest rates BUT long term rates are at the mercy of the bond market. By driving the short term rates down in an effort to liquefy the troubled banks the Fed has sent the dollar into a death spiral. Debt holders do not want to own a weak dollar and are starting to ask for higher rates to compensate them for their risk. So, interest rates on mortgages have been creeping up. Rising rates make selling homes more difficult because affordability is reduced. I am coming to the conclusion that we are indeed in for several difficult years. Parts of the nation are getting hammered while we are getting slapped. At least so far..... Marketing times are longer and aggressive pricing is a must.
Feb.12,2007: This is a good overview from one of my favorite commentators......... Two points I would highlight. Number one: we are 40-60 percent through this cycle. Number two: Seattle region is stronger than the majority of the country, so we should do better.Still forecast a flat year and with rates at 5% it is time to be looking.